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EUR Whiplash to Induce 1.40 Test in EURUSD?

The USD is stronger this morning as yesterday's melt-up looks like a short squeeze in the rear-view mirror. Market also punishes the Euro on the latest round of Greek woes and nervousness in the EU financial sector. What a turnaround!

Yesterday's action proved a red herring, as the aid of 20/20 hindsight shows us that it was just a temporary short squeeze. On the fundamental side, there were real developments and drivers that set up today's Euro downside, as Luxembourg's FM Frenier said very late yesterday that a decision on the shape of the next Greek bailout package may be delayed until early July. Meanwhile, at the street level in Athens, the unrest is only increasing and protestors are threatening to protest around the clock.

In the financial markets, the standard sovereign spread measures haven't shown any sudden accelerations of fear, though we did see some widening on the day. But a Moody's threat to put three large French banks (Credit Agricole, SocGen, and BNPParibas) on review for a possible negative downgrade due to their exposure to Greek sovereign and private debt did clearly get negative market attention and has aggravated the Euro sell-off.

Chart: EURUSD

EURUSD performed an about face after rallying strongly for a couple of days to consolidate the previous very large sell-off wave from the 1.4700 area. The emphatic resumption of the sell-off today suggests the downside may be the side of least resistance and that we may be headed for a test of the range low just below 1.40, if not for a full test lower toward the 200-day moving average, which now comes in above 1.3800. To the upside, a strong recovery and close above perhaps 1.4375 would be needed to stem the negative momentum that has developed today.

Odds and ends

The Au stralian dollar has managed to escape collateral damage from the generally risk off environment as the RBA's Stevens was out overnight suggesting that the RBA would need to raise rates again at some point and that the next round of inflation data would be instrumental in the timing of such a decision. Year-forward expectations picked up about 4 bps on the development.

UK Jobless claims accelerated to the upside, though the UK also saw a stronger than expected surge in confidence. GBPUSD swooned back through the 55-day moving average support as whiplash was the keyword of the day for USD/Europe crosses.

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Known as K-Lite 103.5 from 1995 - 2007 and Heart 103.5 from January 2007 - June 2007. In mid-2009, the station's sound shifted to a predominantly dance format, with new slogans "Move To It!" and "Manila's Leading Dance Source," introduced to emphasize as such. DWKX's flip to Dance puts them in competition with 107.9 U-Radio, whose direction focuses mostly on pure underground club product, as opposed to DWKX's straight-ahead broader approach. In addition, DWKX also becomes the first fully licensed commercial Dance radio outlet to cover Metro Manila since the demise of 89 DMZ.

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